Category Archives: Wonders

A Sunset and Two Truffles

Although the summer of 2024 has seen abundant sunny days here, recently, the past few have been unseasonably rainy and cold. 

Not much fun.

On balance, though, the season has been great, so I’ll not complain. And when today presented itself clear and bright, a bit cold, perhaps best termed “vibrant”, I was not about to argue much. I was about to enjoy.

The early evening was spent on the west deck, with a book and a beer and a dog and a sun going down. 

The dog, Snag is not well, and probably mortally so; his days are most likely numbered. His energy levels are curiously undiminished, and he seems oblivious to what is growing inside him. But the vet has been clear this happy, energetic state is unlikely to persist. Hence the time with him is precious. That time on the deck to share with him was precious.

Despite the adage “Man’s best friend”, there are plenty of things that make dogs inscrutable to humans, and no doubt the inverse. I gave him a scratch under the chin; he liked that. I purred some nice “good dog” words to him, and he liked that as well. 

But for me, the sun was going down in a blaze of glory. The air was clear and very still. There was not a breath of wind. The stream made a very pleasant background singing. The mountains dark in the midground, their profile sharply cutting the sky behind. 

It was beautiful.

But there was no sharing this with Snag. Dogs just don’t do sunsets. They have no sense of awe. 

He laid himself down, crossed one paw over the other, placed his head on top of that pile, and dozed.

This made me feel doubly distant from him: I could see the sunset and he couldn’t; I knew he was ill and he didn’t. 

For a moment it all seemed rather dismal.

But finally the last little bit of sun went down behind the mountains, and as so often happens at precisely that moment, there was a stirring in the air, just the whisper of a breeze, nothing more. It was as if, the day’s work done, the Earth sighed.

Snag was on his feet in an instant, his muzzle — the very dark end of which the French call his “truffle” — pointed towards where the sun had just set, and he sniffed the air.

Two or three times; short inhalations; then a few much longer ones. You could see he was interested in them; you could imagine he was taking pleasure in them.

That was his sunset.

And then I realised how stupid I had been. Why should the dog come to the human, and not the other way around? Why should I expect him to appreciate my view of the sunset, if I could not appreciate his scent of it?

So I raised my truffle as he had, and sniffed the air, as he did. 

Truth be told, I didn’t get much of a scent out of it. Everyone knows that dogs are much more sensitive to smell than humans are. But I did sense, if not a scent, a least the presence of something, the intimation of some perfume, the slightest suggestion of some flower, some mushroom, some pine. It was so indistinct, I almost want to call it a pre-scent. But it was definitely there.

It was something I surely would have missed, had not Snag sniffed, had he not led me to it, had I, through him, not become more attentive to my nose.

It made me wonder: if we are to empathise with friends not of our own species, we might do better to do it in their terms, rather than our own. 

I suppose I had wanted for Snag to see my sunset.

I suppose what happened, in some small way, was that I sniffed his.

It is a very good way to share some time with a dog who is not all that well.

Mushroom Hunting in Paris

Not The Cruellest Month

According to T.S. Eliot, April is the cruellest month. 

Well, he may have been a great poet, but Eliot was a rotten meteorologist. 

A lot of nice things happen in April, at least where I live (France, and hence the northern hemisphere, when April is in the spring), and it has always seemed a very forward, uplifting time to me. 

If I had to nominate the most difficult month – and I still wouldn’t call it cruel – I would have said November. 

Compare the two: My Mom was born in April. Likewise VC, SD, JL, AM and many other of my friends. That is hardly meteorology. But still, so many nice people, what’s not to like? April, and the period surrounding it, is a time for hopeful anticipation, because it provides the transition from cold winter, through spring and into warm summer. 

November is the inversion of all that (although I do know some nice people who were born in November). It is too late for Indian Summer. Any colourful leaves have long since fallen. The clear, vibrant cold days of full-blown winter have not yet arrived. Any precipitation falls only as rain.

Around my house, nothing ever really dries out properly. The bathroom is chilly, the house, in general, difficult to heat. It is the month where the sun struggles most. When streams and rivers are most likely to overflow their banks.

For this and other reasons, I was feeling rebellious this November, and decided to take a quick break in Paris, a city I hadn’t visited in a very long time. 

To begin with, I resolved to remain light-on-my feet and book at short notice when the first period of four to five clear days was forecast. But as the month wore on – that November weather again — it was obvious those good days were unlikely to happen, and in a “to hell with it” moment late one Thursday afternoon, booked the whole thing, transport, hotel, kennel for the dog and all, and at 06:00 on the morning of the next day, was shaking the rain off my shoulders while standing in a train that was just pulling out of the station at Aime. I felt a bit like Bogie, in the train scene from Casablanca, but somehow in reverse. Unlike him, I wasn’t leaving Paris. That train would take me to it. 

And I wasn’t heartbroken.

To Paris. 

To the City of Light.



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Fran Varey: Mom’s Life

Mom at 94

My Mom died on 26 August 2021. It fell to me to write the obituary, which, as a task, is at once both an honour and an impossibility. The reason for the former is obvious; the reason for the latter is that no words can capture and condense a person’s life.

Mom’s Life

Mom was born in Toronto and spent all her early life there. As a child, she was particularly close to her father, Ed Sproule, and it would appear it was from him she inherited her great love of walking. One of her earliest childhood memories was of him coming home each Friday, having been paid, and giving her some small coin so that she could go down to the shop and buy the fish and chips for dinner.

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On Fermi Calculations

Big Falling Fermi Confetti

Take a piece of standard paper. Rip it up, roughly, into an 8 by 8 grid, which will net you 64 pieces of over-sized confetti. Hold them in your cupped hands at chest height, and let them fall to the ground.

What can you learn from doing this? Well, for one thing, it can help you estimate the strength of Trinity, the first atom bomb test explosion.

No, really, it can.

But I’ve left out two things. You have to have been at the observing site at the time when Trinity was actually detonated. And you have to be Enrico Fermi.

Enrico Fermi 311x300

Enrico Fermi in front of a machine he invented for toasting bread.

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Superforecasting Will Become the Next Big Thing Unless It Doesn’t

Forecasts That Don’t Mean Much

Comedian George Carlin had a character called Al Sleet, otherwise known as the Hippie-Dippie Weatherman. Sleet’s speciality was vague or ambiguous weather forecasts, and his most famous was:

Tonight’s forecast: Dark. Continued mostly dark tonight, changing to widely scattered light towards morning.

Everyone can find this funny, but it takes a very special kind of intellect like Philip Tetlock to take it seriously. Why seriously? Because Tetlock has spent much of his career studying forecasting, why we get it wrong (as we often do), and whether we can get it right (which, with discipline, we sometimes can).

Meteo-France Rhone Alpes 502x200
A forecast

He has just come out with a new book, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, which I am going to discuss in just a second.

But first, we have to talk about dart-throwing chimpanzees.

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Like It So It Hurts

Liking is Meaningless

The problem with the Facebook “LIke” button (and equivalents) is that it is so easy to use, using it is virtually meaningless. Click, click, click. Like, Like, Like. Now that was painless….

And yet the Like button is supposed to mean something.

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Herman on the relation between liking and hurting.

Facebook says Liking something allows you to “give positive feedback and connect with things you care about”. The number of Likes a post receives helps to determine whether it goes into your news feed. But its absurd ease-of-use seriously dilutes any notion of whether you actually do care about the thing in question. You can click without looking, and you certainly can click without caring.

Without wishing to sound ungrateful, I know this for a fact, as I have French friends, people who don’t even read English, who have “Liked” some of my English blog posts. Of course it is well-intentioned, and a kind gesture. I shouldn’t complain. Merci, mes amis, mais….

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Lawrence Krauss: Finding Beauty in the Darkness

Lawrence Krauss, one of our very best science writers, has penned a fine article describing the aesthetic significance of the recent LIGO discovery of gravity waves. It is a short article, full of wonder at the accomplishment and its implications. I urge you to go and read it. It is entitled Finding Beauty in the Darkness and appeared in the Sunday Review section of the New York Times on 14 February 2016.

Albert Einstein

Albert Einstein

Such a near perfect piece needs no review from me, but I don’t mind stealing some of Krauss’ text. These brief passages fit the “wonders” side of the “wonders and deception” theme that is the backbone of this blog. So I just cannot resist.

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A Key to the Charles Bridge, Prague

Every once in a while you hear a story that is just so good, the pessimist gets the better of you, and you immediately think it is of apocryphal origin. But I trust the guy who told me this one, and he claimed it happened to him. So I believe it.

And it would be so nice if it were true….

I was in Prague at the beginning of February, pursuing a job opportunity, and had the chance to meet up with a friend there, a mathematician and engineer, Václav. He reminds me a bit of my old Classics professor/friend, Ceri Stephens: kind, engaging, intelligent, and loves his beer. Not quite the same age as Ceri, so perhaps in his 60’s. Václav and I had dinner on the outskirts of town near the castle that overlooks it, and walked back towards Prague around 23:00.

Charles Bridge, Prague

The Charles Bridge, Prague

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Bricks and Mortar in Human-Level Artificial Intelligence

Bricks and Mortar:

Strategic Positioning of a Long-Term, Human-Level AI Project

Bricks and Mortar
Bricks and Mortar

Précis

  • Any 10 year project needs to have a robust strategy for dealing with change during its lifetime
  • This is particularly true for a human-level AI project, as all key aspects of the field are changing dramatically
  • To date, all previous AI projects have been narrowly-focused and highly specialized: designed to achieve one goal (diagnose a disease, play chess, decide when to sell a stock, etc.)
  • Any human-level AI project, by contrast, will be orders of magnitude more complex, integrating sub-systems that will need to work together to achieve many sub-goals simultaneously, so…
  • Any human-level AI project will end up being a cooperative affair, involving many manufacturers/labs producing many specialist components. It is useful to think of these components as bricks, and the larger project as an edifice to be built
  • This heterogeneous nature will lead to novel constructs not seen in previous AI projects. Most notably, a human-level AI project will be a distributed system, not a monolithic program. Some data and third-party AI sub-systems will be called as services, not bolt-on components
  • To carry the “bricks” metaphor to its logical conclusion, a kind of highly dynamic “mortar” will also be required to bind any human-level AI project together: a mechanism that will allow the bricks to discover one another; to coordinate and sequence their activities; to recover gracefully when a component fails, gets upgraded or goes off-line; to communicate with outside sensors, AI services and data
  • The best business strategy involves developing the mortar, not the bricks

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Book Review: What to Think About Machines That Think

Intelligentsia impresario John Brockman has done an admirable job of assembling some very impressive thinkers for his web site Edge.org. Although most are scientists, there is a fair number of people from the other estates, and the cross-fertilisation of ideas frequently draws even hardened specialists out of their shells, to make pronouncements on things well outside their fields of expertise.

Hal and Dave
Hal and Dave

Although this is not always a good thing, it does make entertaining, stimulating discussion, and I can recommend the site wholeheartedly.

Every year Brockman sets a current question to his group (whose members are, cringingly, called “Edgies”), and turns the resulting answers into a book. This year’s question, and the book’s title, is “What do You Think About Machines That Think?”

The responses, which take the form of short essays, are only very roughly organized by theme. These themes bleed slowly from one to another, without dividing section headings. This provides a surprisingly effective minimalist structure to the book, hinting at emergent concepts that transcend the distinct points made by individual authors.

There are so many excellent ideas presented in the book, that I can recommend it, too, without reservation. So rather than write a normal critical review here, I thought it would be more useful to look at these themes, especially how the thinkers have thought through them, rather than just analyse what they’ve written. From this we can glean a lot about the state of the fields of AI and machine intelligence.

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